On the other side of the coin, you have the Eagles, aka the 90's Buffalo Bills Jr.  I say Jr. because at least the Bills got to the Super Bowl before they choked.  The Eagles can't get out of the conference title game. You wouldn't know that, however, while listening to their obnoxious shit-talking fans explain their greatness.  Hence, imagine what kind of spirits I was in a year ago watching Carolina's secondary led by rookie Ricky Manning make a mockery of pro-bowler Donovan McNabb.  Oh I was in RARE form the Monday after the game.

I used to like the Eagles.  Then I actually met Eagles fans.  That killed the admiration real quick.  Besides, it's hard not to hate a team that has Terrell "We're 99-1, but I'm not getting the ball enough" Owens and Freddie "I stole The Rock's nickname, and now I am the greatest receiver in the world by having a decent game against the worst secondary in playoffs history" Mitchell.  The only person I like on the team is their coach, Andy Reid, who is the second best coach in the league behind Bill Bellichek (John Fox is a close third, of course).

Hence, if I could control fate, the Falcons would win 6-3, with both offenses being extremely crappy and a field goal to win it from an interception picked off by Brooking gets the deal done in overtime.  Of course, that'll never happen, so let me go into analyst mode and try to put this game into perspective.

First of all, it will come down to defense.  The team with the better defense and the better secondary will win this game.  From what I've seen, the defensive edge has to be given to the Philadelphia Eagles.  As I stated, Reid is a good coach, and will have that secondary prepared to go after Vick and Warrick Dunn.  Expect to see a lot of zone defense in this one with Eagles mdlb Jeremiah Trotter placing a spy on the ballhandler, whether it's Vick or Dunn.  I also think Reid will deploy some blitzes from the secondary, particularly with the safeties.

Only problem with that is Algee Crumpler.  Crumpler is the true difference maker in that Falcons offense because he provides the only glimpse of a passing attack they have.  It's going to be hard for Trotter to keep Vick at bay while the other lbs cover Crumpler.  Thus the outside lbs HAVE TO DO THEIR JOB.  If they don't, Vick will put that ball in the air in Crumpler's vicinity and he will catch it.  And if/when he does catch it, you've got to punish him for it.  Make no mistake; the Eagles linebackers have the most daunting task ahead of them all year because they have to spy on Vick and Dunn while keeping Crumpler covered.

The Falcons don't have as much pressure on them, but the lack of talent in the secondary is going to be a huge problem.  Can they cover their man or area to give the lbs enough time to get to McNabb?  Sure; they've been able to do it most of the year, but what happens if that pass rush breaks down while Pinkston or Mitchell goes deep?  That's a big problem, because I'm convinced that Ray Buchanan and those safeties look forward to getting burned every single week.  If they allow Mitchell to do his silly championship belt pose more than 5 times in the game, the Falcons are going to have a long day.

Thus, this game is an analyst's dream, or nightmare depending on how much you like a challenge.  There are so many mitigating factors, like: 

See what I mean?  There are simply too many circumstances riding with both teams because you never know who will show up and who won't, and any one of these things could be the thing that makes the difference in this game.

To be honest, I don't want to make a prediction on this game.  But I'm going to....later.

Let's talk about the Steelers vs. Patriots AFC title rumble first.

This will probably be the most physical game you've seen all year.  Seriously.  If someone doesn't take a ride on the cart or on a stretcher I will definitely be surprised. 

Both of these teams have defenses that like to hurt people.  Both teams have running backs that would love nothing more than to run some poor sap over like a Mac truck rolling over a grape.  Add snow to it, and you have the makings of another classic.

At quarterback you have Tom Brady vs. The Next Tom Brady.  On one hand you have a guy that's been a winner ever since he became a starting quarterback, and has only tasted defeat twice in his last 35 games.  On the other hand you have a big brusing rookie quarterback that has yet to taste defeat.  Ever.  For a rookie quarterback to do the things he done is completely unheard of.

Most people would talk about these teams' respective defenses.  Nah.  I'd rather talk about their offenses.  You see, I think the defenses of both teams provide a necessary distraction to their offenses because everyone sees them as so daunting that beating the defense is the way to win football games.

After watching the Patriots vs. Indianapolis, I think folks have got it all wrong.  Beating the defense is a key step in winning against them, but it isn't THE key step.  The key step is beating the offense.  If anyone has noticed, Brady only plays to the level required to score enough points to beat you decisively.  You're rarely going to see the Pats blow out teams, at least in scoring terms.  20-6, 35-28, 23-7, 31-17....it's not a blowout, but he'll make sure that you are down by a couple of scores in the fourth quarter.

In order to shake the Patriots up, you've got to attack Brady.  Only problem is, that means you have to beat that vaunted Patriots' offensive line, and they protect Brady like a mother bear protects her cub.  But if the Steelers are able to get to him,  they have an easy ride getting to Brady.  Brady isn't a mobile quarterback, so sacks should be on the menu and you might be able to get him to make a few mistakes as well.  The Steelers would only help themselves if they constantly review that Patriots/Dolphins game on MNF earlier this year in order to see what schemes they were using to attack Brady and force him to throw picks.  But if you allow Brady to sit in that pocket, he will cut that Steelers secondary into shards.  I really don't think there is a secondary in this league that Tom Brady can't beat if given the time.

Same thing goes with the Patriots defense.  The secondary will be the key to this game, as they will have to cover receivers and not panic when they see Roethlisberger use his feet.  He's not coming off of that line of scrimmage; all he's doing is biding his time until he can find an oper receiver in the flats or running an out pattern to the sidelines.  Zone coverage designed to take the sidelines away from him and force him to throw in the middle of the field will be the best plan for Bellichek and that defense in this game. 

The running game is going to come down to heart.  Jerome Bettis, aka "The Bus", more than likely will retire either here or in Jacksonville on the 6th.  Where he retires will depend on how consistent he is in this game. 

3 yards here, 4 yards there isn't going to be enough.  You're going to need 7-8 yard games to be the regular carry in the game, and maybe Bettis or Staley will break out for a big gain.  If that doesn't happen, the Steelers might as well stay home and make fishing plans, because there is no way the Steelers can put so much pressure on Roethlisberger without something to offset that defense.  Bellichek, the evil genius that he is, is probably itching to eat that kid alive.

Corey Dillon has been the rock hard running back for the Patriots, considered the best acquisition in the offseason last year.  Well now it's time for him to make his money.  While I don't expect him to run for over 150 yards against that Steelers front line, he's got to dish out some punishment and wear that defense down much in the same manner they did Indianapolis as they convert on third downs.

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So here are my picks:

For the AFC Title game, the Patriots will come out the winner.  As Chris Carter said, I'm not betting against Bill Bellichek again.  And I agree with a comment that Shannon Sharpe made in last week's Jets/Steelers game where Cowher will become the same old coach he's always been, and Roethlisberger will be reduced to the rookie he really is.  While I think Pittsburgh's offense is much grittier the Colts receiever corp, I can't see Ben doing enough to beat a defense that shut down Indianapolis so decisively and has to be hyped up to do the same this week.