You are not going to win Super Bowls off running the ball alone, because then your defense has to make up for the lack of scoring a one-dimensional running game brings.  You rarely see an offense that only runs the ball put up 30-40 points on the board.  You go up against a team that can throw bombs and put points up on the board early and guess what?  You have to get rid of the running game, because it runs too much time off the clock.

And that's precisely what Vick had to do in the fourth quarter; they had been so focused on running the ball and not opening up their passing game that once the Eagles got into double digits in the fourth, he had no choice but to pass the ball.  When that happened, I told people on the board the game was over, and they never disputed it.

In an article for the Boston Globe, Football Outsiders editor-in-chief Aaron Schatz explained the phenonmeon of the winning rushing offense:

Because the game clock stops on an incomplete pass, but continues to run after a player with the ball is tackled in bounds, teams that are ahead shy away from throwing the ball. They want to avoid an incomplete that might stop the clock and leave more time for the opposing team to mount a comeback. The top two teams this season in fourth-quarter carries from running backs were the Steelers and Patriots. Nine teams ran the ball on more than 45 percent of their fourth-quarter plays, and all nine teams had winning records. In 2003, every single team that ran the ball on more than 40 percent of its fourth quarter plays had a winning record except for San Francisco.

Football experts hold up this season's first Pittsburgh-New England game, a 34-20 Pittsburgh victory, as an example of how important the running game can be. Pittsburgh ran the ball 49 times, New England only six – in the entire game. But Pittsburgh threw the ball as often as they ran with it in the first half: 18 passes, 19 runs. In the second half, the Steelers ran 30 times and passed only six.

So teams with high rushing totals aren't necessarily establishing their running game from the first snap onward. When a winning football team has a high rushing total, it is very likely they got many of those yards while running out the clock.

In short, with rare exceptions, teams don't win because they run. They run because they win.

Well, I'm sure some will say, "Yeah, but Atlanta is that exception."

Well guess what?  They weren't today.  And they won't be when it comes to teams that have a strong front four and a decent linebacker set that are able to keep Vick contained in the backfield.  Sure; they'll win enough games to be playoff contenders, but they will never be a legit Super Bowl threat until Vick learns how to get the ball to his receivers. 

As for the AFC Title Game, there really isn't much to say.  Roethlisberger played like a rookie, Brady once again did what it took to win decisively, and Cowher is now 1-4 in AFC Championship Games....at home.  Guess what you'll hear from the Pittsburgh papers next week.

The Patriots defense didn't dismantle Big Ben, but they definitely made sure he wasn't a major factor in the game.  Roethlisberger was picked three times today, making this his worst outing of the year. 

On the other side of the coin, Pittsburgh tried to rely on their front four to stop the run and didn't blitz Tom Brady.  Bad mistake.  While they did keep Corey Dillon quiet, Brady let loose of a couple of bombs in the first half.  Add that to Steelers turnovers, and it was 24-3 at the half.  The Steelers never came within 11 points of the Patriots for the rest of the game.

I talked about this last night; you've got to place pressure on Brady and you got to do it the whole game.  You can't let Brady or almost any quarterback in the NFL sit in the pocket and throw at will.  Brady is at his best when he can take about 8-10 seconds sitting in the pocket and finally hitting the receiver, as the Steelers allowed him to do for most of the first half.  Brady eventually turned that secondary into mush during the second half.

What the New England Patriots have been able to do in the last four years is remarkable.  All the dynasty and Hall of Fame talk can cease, because the Patriots are that dynasty and Bellichek and Brady already have their spots in the Hall of Fame.  To play at this kind of level in the current NFL conditions is unbelievable, and it will be fun to see what kind of destructive scheme Bill Bellichek has waiting for Donovan McNabb on February 6th in Jacksonville.

On the other side of the coin, you have the Eagles, aka the 90's Buffalo Bills Jr.  I say Jr. because at least the Bills got to the Super Bowl before they choked.  The Eagles can't get out of the conference title game. You wouldn't know that, however, while listening to their obnoxious shit-talking fans explain their greatness.  Hence, imagine what kind of spirits I was in a year ago watching Carolina's secondary led by rookie Ricky Manning make a mockery of pro-bowler Donovan McNabb.  Oh I was in RARE form the Monday after the game.

I used to like the Eagles.  Then I actually met Eagles fans.  That killed the admiration real quick.  Besides, it's hard not to hate a team that has Terrell "We're 99-1, but I'm not getting the ball enough" Owens and Freddie "I stole The Rock's nickname, and now I am the greatest receiver in the world by having a decent game against the worst secondary in playoffs history" Mitchell.  The only person I like on the team is their coach, Andy Reid, who is the second best coach in the league behind Bill Bellichek (John Fox is a close third, of course).

Hence, if I could control fate, the Falcons would win 6-3, with both offenses being extremely crappy and a field goal to win it from an interception picked off by Brooking gets the deal done in overtime.  Of course, that'll never happen, so let me go into analyst mode and try to put this game into perspective.

First of all, it will come down to defense.  The team with the better defense and the better secondary will win this game.  From what I've seen, the defensive edge has to be given to the Philadelphia Eagles.  As I stated, Reid is a good coach, and will have that secondary prepared to go after Vick and Warrick Dunn.  Expect to see a lot of zone defense in this one with Eagles mdlb Jeremiah Trotter placing a spy on the ballhandler, whether it's Vick or Dunn.  I also think Reid will deploy some blitzes from the secondary, particularly with the safeties.

Only problem with that is Algee Crumpler.  Crumpler is the true difference maker in that Falcons offense because he provides the only glimpse of a passing attack they have.  It's going to be hard for Trotter to keep Vick at bay while the other lbs cover Crumpler.  Thus the outside lbs HAVE TO DO THEIR JOB.  If they don't, Vick will put that ball in the air in Crumpler's vicinity and he will catch it.  And if/when he does catch it, you've got to punish him for it.  Make no mistake; the Eagles linebackers have the most daunting task ahead of them all year because they have to spy on Vick and Dunn while keeping Crumpler covered.

The Falcons don't have as much pressure on them, but the lack of talent in the secondary is going to be a huge problem.  Can they cover their man or area to give the lbs enough time to get to McNabb?  Sure; they've been able to do it most of the year, but what happens if that pass rush breaks down while Pinkston or Mitchell goes deep?  That's a big problem, because I'm convinced that Ray Buchanan and those safeties look forward to getting burned every single week.  If they allow Mitchell to do his silly championship belt pose more than 5 times in the game, the Falcons are going to have a long day.

Thus, this game is an analyst's dream, or nightmare depending on how much you like a challenge.  There are so many mitigating factors, like: 

See what I mean?  There are simply too many circumstances riding with both teams because you never know who will show up and who won't, and any one of these things could be the thing that makes the difference in this game.

To be honest, I don't want to make a prediction on this game.  But I'm going to....later.

Let's talk about the Steelers vs. Patriots AFC title rumble first.

This will probably be the most physical game you've seen all year.  Seriously.  If someone doesn't take a ride on the cart or on a stretcher I will definitely be surprised. 

Both of these teams have defenses that like to hurt people.  Both teams have running backs that would love nothing more than to run some poor sap over like a Mac truck rolling over a grape.  Add snow to it, and you have the makings of another classic.

At quarterback you have Tom Brady vs. The Next Tom Brady.  On one hand you have a guy that's been a winner ever since he became a starting quarterback, and has only tasted defeat twice in his last 35 games.  On the other hand you have a big brusing rookie quarterback that has yet to taste defeat.  Ever.  For a rookie quarterback to do the things he done is completely unheard of.

Most people would talk about these teams' respective defenses.  Nah.  I'd rather talk about their offenses.  You see, I think the defenses of both teams provide a necessary distraction to their offenses because everyone sees them as so daunting that beating the defense is the way to win football games.

After watching the Patriots vs. Indianapolis, I think folks have got it all wrong.  Beating the defense is a key step in winning against them, but it isn't THE key step.  The key step is beating the offense.  If anyone has noticed, Brady only plays to the level required to score enough points to beat you decisively.  You're rarely going to see the Pats blow out teams, at least in scoring terms.  20-6, 35-28, 23-7, 31-17....it's not a blowout, but he'll make sure that you are down by a couple of scores in the fourth quarter.

In order to shake the Patriots up, you've got to attack Brady.  Only problem is, that means you have to beat that vaunted Patriots' offensive line, and they protect Brady like a mother bear protects her cub.  But if the Steelers are able to get to him,  they have an easy ride getting to Brady.  Brady isn't a mobile quarterback, so sacks should be on the menu and you might be able to get him to make a few mistakes as well.  The Steelers would only help themselves if they constantly review that Patriots/Dolphins game on MNF earlier this year in order to see what schemes they were using to attack Brady and force him to throw picks.  But if you allow Brady to sit in that pocket, he will cut that Steelers secondary into shards.  I really don't think there is a secondary in this league that Tom Brady can't beat if given the time.

Same thing goes with the Patriots defense.  The secondary will be the key to this game, as they will have to cover receivers and not panic when they see Roethlisberger use his feet.  He's not coming off of that line of scrimmage; all he's doing is biding his time until he can find an oper receiver in the flats or running an out pattern to the sidelines.  Zone coverage designed to take the sidelines away from him and force him to throw in the middle of the field will be the best plan for Bellichek and that defense in this game. 

The running game is going to come down to heart.  Jerome Bettis, aka "The Bus", more than likely will retire either here or in Jacksonville on the 6th.  Where he retires will depend on how consistent he is in this game. 

3 yards here, 4 yards there isn't going to be enough.  You're going to need 7-8 yard games to be the regular carry in the game, and maybe Bettis or Staley will break out for a big gain.  If that doesn't happen, the Steelers might as well stay home and make fishing plans, because there is no way the Steelers can put so much pressure on Roethlisberger without something to offset that defense.  Bellichek, the evil genius that he is, is probably itching to eat that kid alive.

Corey Dillon has been the rock hard running back for the Patriots, considered the best acquisition in the offseason last year.  Well now it's time for him to make his money.  While I don't expect him to run for over 150 yards against that Steelers front line, he's got to dish out some punishment and wear that defense down much in the same manner they did Indianapolis as they convert on third downs.

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So here are my picks:

For the AFC Title game, the Patriots will come out the winner.  As Chris Carter said, I'm not betting against Bill Bellichek again.  And I agree with a comment that Shannon Sharpe made in last week's Jets/Steelers game where Cowher will become the same old coach he's always been, and Roethlisberger will be reduced to the rookie he really is.  While I think Pittsburgh's offense is much grittier the Colts receiever corp, I can't see Ben doing enough to beat a defense that shut down Indianapolis so decisively and has to be hyped up to do the same this week.

However, not only do I have the song saved on my computer, but I also have a very interesting conversation that went over the air before that song was played.

You see, one of the morning crew's personalities, Miss Info, objected to the song and tried to seperate herself from the song over the air.  This resorted into her getting chewed out by her coworkers, who claimed she wasn't being a team player and was never willing to defend their work.  In fact, they hinted at the end of the very heated argument that Info, who they identified as an Asian woman, would be fired after the show.  Jones even had the nerve to say to Info, "...and I know you feel you're superior probably because you're Asian, but you're not."  Another personality can be heard in the background saying "I'mma start shooting Asians."

I found out about this on the hip hop discussion board OkayPlayer.com, where they are really pissed over this song and the Info incident.  Several of them have written to Hot 97's corporate headquarters and directly to the station. 

It's amazing that crap like this can be placed over the air.  Due to my libertarian leanings, I don't think the government should get involved, but there is no doubt that Miss Jones and everyone else on that morning show staff minus Miss Info should be fired immediately by the station manager and by corporate. 

And I really don't see how in the HELL could Miss Info sit there and let those fools create and air that song in her presence, and when she tries to seperate herself from it, they are going to curse her out, threaten to get her fired and hurl racist comments at her...ALL OVER THE AIR.  Info didn't do one damn thing.  It's stuff like this that totally boggles my mind.

As far as I know, there isn't a set link on an internet server that would have the song available to download, and my bandwidth for blogdrive is too small to hold it.  But if you want to hear it, email me here and I could possibly send it to you via email or through AOL Instant Messenger, Yahoo Messenger or MSN Messenger when I am online.

Personally, I think the blogosphere needs to get the word out even further and make sure that these bigots never think about doing this again.

Somehow she also forgotten that she admitted there were WMD's in Iraq a little more than two years ago.  Here's what Sen. Boxer said in November 2002:

For Democrats in Washington, history started yesterday, and anything before that only happened the way they "remember" it.  Thus, they can't be held accountable for the things they said even a couple of weeks ago.

That's not the only thing.  Boxer also distorted Rice's statement to Senator Voinovich in regards to the tsunami.  Here's what Dr. Rice actually said:

Thus, Rice was responding to Voinovich's comment on how the federal government could eliminate any worries about "hidden motives".  Not only did Boxer take the comment out of context - making it seem as if the Bush Administration was exploiting the situation - but she was responding to a question that Voinovich asked.