There were a few things that didn't happen. I was hoping for snow. Instead I got snowhills. No clouds, no fog, nothing. In fact I think the sun was out during the Falcons/Eagles game at the Linc. Oh well.
But as for the games themselves, they were somewhat entertaining. And it was great watching the game while discussing it on two discussion boards; OkayPlayer and Football Outsiders.
First let's talk about the NFC Title game. Everyone tonight is happy because Donovan McNabb finally got to the big one, but just like Elway in 98, he really got there by riding the coattails of his running back and their defense and not making any big mistakes. I didn't see who was Fox's player of the game, but no doubt it should have been Brian Westbrook.
I'm really impressed with Westbrook's versatility. In college he was the first running back in NCAA history to ever post 1,000 running yards and 1,000 reception yards. That makes it very hard to come up with a decent pass blitz to beat McNabb with because you always have to worry about where he is going to be on the field.
Meanwhile, the Falcons couldn't get anything off the ground. The running game was shut down for most of the game save a couple of drives. Vick tried to get something going on his feet, but was constantly battered by Philly's front four and linebackers. And the passing game...well, passing game and Falcons mix as well as oil and water.
And that's precisely what Vick had to do in the fourth quarter; they had been so focused on running the ball and not opening up their passing game that once the Eagles got into double digits in the fourth, he had no choice but to pass the ball. When that happened, I told people on the board the game was over, and they never disputed it.
In an article for the Boston Globe, Football Outsiders editor-in-chief Aaron Schatz explained the phenonmeon of the winning rushing offense:
Well, I'm sure some will say, "Yeah, but Atlanta is that exception."Because the game clock stops on an incomplete pass, but continues to run after a player with the ball is tackled in bounds, teams that are ahead shy away from throwing the ball. They want to avoid an incomplete that might stop the clock and leave more time for the opposing team to mount a comeback. The top two teams this season in fourth-quarter carries from running backs were the Steelers and Patriots. Nine teams ran the ball on more than 45 percent of their fourth-quarter plays, and all nine teams had winning records. In 2003, every single team that ran the ball on more than 40 percent of its fourth quarter plays had a winning record except for San Francisco.
Football experts hold up this season's first Pittsburgh-New England game, a 34-20 Pittsburgh victory, as an example of how important the running game can be. Pittsburgh ran the ball 49 times, New England only six – in the entire game. But Pittsburgh threw the ball as often as they ran with it in the first half: 18 passes, 19 runs. In the second half, the Steelers ran 30 times and passed only six.
So teams with high rushing totals aren't necessarily establishing their running game from the first snap onward. When a winning football team has a high rushing total, it is very likely they got many of those yards while running out the clock.
In short, with rare exceptions, teams don't win because they run. They run because they win.
Well guess what? They weren't today. And they won't be when it comes to teams that have a strong front four and a decent linebacker set that are able to keep Vick contained in the backfield. Sure; they'll win enough games to be playoff contenders, but they will never be a legit Super Bowl threat until Vick learns how to get the ball to his receivers.
As for the AFC Title Game, there really isn't much to say. Roethlisberger played like a rookie, Brady once again did what it took to win decisively, and Cowher is now 1-4 in AFC Championship Games....at home. Guess what you'll hear from the Pittsburgh papers next week.
The Patriots defense didn't dismantle Big Ben, but they definitely made sure he wasn't a major factor in the game. Roethlisberger was picked three times today, making this his worst outing of the year.
On the other side of the coin, Pittsburgh tried to rely on their front four to stop the run and didn't blitz Tom Brady. Bad mistake. While they did keep Corey Dillon quiet, Brady let loose of a couple of bombs in the first half. Add that to Steelers turnovers, and it was 24-3 at the half. The Steelers never came within 11 points of the Patriots for the rest of the game.
I talked about this last night; you've got to place pressure on Brady and you got to do it the whole game. You can't let Brady or almost any quarterback in the NFL sit in the pocket and throw at will. Brady is at his best when he can take about 8-10 seconds sitting in the pocket and finally hitting the receiver, as the Steelers allowed him to do for most of the first half. Brady eventually turned that secondary into mush during the second half.
What the New England Patriots have been able to do in the last four years is remarkable. All the dynasty and Hall of Fame talk can cease, because the Patriots are that dynasty and Bellichek and Brady already have their spots in the Hall of Fame. To play at this kind of level in the current NFL conditions is unbelievable, and it will be fun to see what kind of destructive scheme Bill Bellichek has waiting for Donovan McNabb on February 6th in Jacksonville.